A fellow ex-Microsoft employee recently had this blog entry on why Linux is “10,000 bugs away from World Domination.” His premise is interesting but I’m not sure it is correct.
I got into open source while I was still at Microsoft. So I’ve been around it a little longer. He is right that feature wise, Linux is arguably on par or better than Windows. But that’s not why world domination on the desktop isn’t happening. If quality or features were really the reason, Mac OS X would be the dominator not Linux or Windows. But that’s not how it works.
In my opinion, there are three reasons why Windows continues to be the dominant force.
- OEM deals - People buy new computers, they come with Windows. The majority of people won’t bother to switch. Besides, the OEM machine comes with lots of other software they might want to run.
- Applications - It’s not a question of can Linux run applications but do they exist? The list is extensive of applications you can’t run without at least some effort on Linux. It starts with Microsoft Office.
- Marketing - Simply put, no one has the marketing muscle that Microsoft has in software. They is no one entity that has the will or the might to push Linux the way Microsoft pushes Windows.
Everyone thinks in terms of taking on the Microsoft juggernaut head-on. That’s not the way the landscape will change. It’s the way Google has done it - by changing the rules. Microsoft is slowly becoming less relevant. On the server, Windows is far from dominant. On the desktop, the browser’s importance is becoming the most important factor.
Besides, this isn’t win or lose. Linux is a success and it is here to stay. It has fundamentally altered the computing landscape forever. The wave of “Web 2.0″ services are likely being powered by Linux and open source frameworks. Does it necessarily matter what your mother runs on her computer?
Comments 3
Thanks for reading my posting and I appreciate your comments. Here are some thoughts:
1. OEM deals are an issue, but lots of people reinstall their machine when it gets screwed up with viruses and malware. Also, if they could install Linux side by side, then it would be a way for them to start.
2. I believe Linux has the necessary applications. OpenOffice is good enough and imports Office formats quite well already, though it will get better over time.
3. Marketing isn’t necessary. Ever seen an ad for google? People are dissatisfied with Microsoft and I saw a recent market study to prove it, on Slashdot I think. Plus, if people know that there are 15,000 free applications and that their computer will be more stable, there can be incentives for people to switch.
If the browser is becoming important, as I agree that it has, doesn’t that put Microsoft at risk? This has been a key step…
It doesn’t matter what computer my Mom runs, unless you find world domination of Linux interesting. I said ‘world domination,’ not ‘ending world hunger.’ Also, if everyone were to run Linux, then investments in Linux would double–maybe that would be interesting. BTW, BillG would kill Linux if he could.
Posted 10 Apr 2006 at 14:56 ¶Thanks Keith. I think we agree on most points. I’d like to respond.
1. Agreed. I think new products like VMWare are going to help (or more likely Xen). And look at the buzz Apple has created with Bootcamp. People do want something better but it will take some effort by OEM’s to drive this to a tipping point.
2. Sure there are good apps. I’m not sure I agree that OO is better than Office. I have had bad experiences with it. And it’s not just the office productivity/email apps. It’s all those custom in-house apps every company creates. Wine could solve this if they can keep up.
3. Don’t take marketing too literal. I’m not just talking in the same sense as ads on TV. I’m talking being able to get an audience with major Fortune 500 companies. Or getting the necessary press coverage. IBM is in the ballpark and could be it. Linux experiences both pros and cons to the distributed set of companies that support it. Apple, Microsoft, Sony are singularly behind their products and are relentless about letting the world know about them.
I think investment in Linux is going just fine. Don’t forget that many of the new easy to use “appliances” like Tivo are Linux based. The more appropriate question might be “does you mom need a PC?”
BillG has to understand what a precarious situation he is in. I’m sure it kills him to see how Apple has leveraged FreeBSD and other open source products to rapidly develop Mac OS X. But how can he possibly throw out the 20+ years of work on Windows? Microsoft simply has to play their role until there is a full paradigm shift. Then they can reinvent themselves (see IBM as “champion of open source”).
Posted 10 Apr 2006 at 19:08 ¶Hi Andrew;
1. I think dual-booting is a better that virtualization for most users. Dual-booting sounds confusing, but people will figure it out. Especially when you can mount an NTFS partition and copy your files over, it gives you a way for smooth transition over a few weeks.
2. OpenOffice isn’t better than office, but it is free and it is pretty good and the file format compatibility is good enough as well–though I’ve heard of a number of efforts to make it even better. I was talking to some guys from China at LinuxWorld who hacked on OO file format conversions. What’s also cool is you can configure OpenOffice to read/write Word formats by default so you can switch users incrementally. Also, the ability to build PDFs with OO is very cool and another way to exchange documents with people. I don’t think OpenOffice supports VBA and so that would be an issue, but I don’t think this affects 90% of Word’s customers.
As well, there are a bunch of interesting tools on Linux, Inkscape, the GIMP, Audacity, blender, XML editors, etc.
3. On the desktop, I don’t know if there needs to be marketing. Small businesses and individuals don’t have much of a relationship with MSFT, anyway, and those users alone would be a *huge* chunk. As for large orgs, I agree that they want support and such and so IBM, HP, Novell, Redhat and other orgs need to support Linux and they do and will as customers demand. Of course, many people find they can support Linux themselves because it is a more supportable system–good log files, google, and the other things I talked about in my post.
Yes, my Mom needs a PC–she is a writer for a living. Everyone needs a PC.
Windows (server, embedded and desktop) & Office alone represent the vast majority of their profits, so I don’t know if BillG understands that it is game over already. SQL Server, VS.Net, etc. will die not too long after.
I don’t know if MSFT can reinvent themselves. They are built on Windows to the core. If they had gotten into the Linux market 5 years ago, ported C# to Linux, build their apps in C#, etc. things might be different, but I feel quite certain it is too late.
Yes Linux is doing great in the appliance, server, supercomputer, etc. The desktop is last and coming along great. With focus it could be ready this year–the installs and conversions will come later, but its got to be ready first.
I installed Ubuntu on my dad’s computer a couple of months ago. His windows box got screwed up with viruses, browsing the web was very slow, taskmanager would crash, etc. and so I needed to do something. I set it all up in a few hours and its been working great for him.
Posted 10 Apr 2006 at 20:58 ¶Post a Comment